What Makes The Current US Shutdown Distinct (as well as Harder to Resolve)?

Placeholder image Government shutdown illustration

Government closures have become a recurring feature of US politics – but this one feels especially difficult to resolve due to political dynamics along with deep-seated animosity between the two parties.

Some government services are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 employees likely to be placed on unpaid leave since Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.

Votes aimed at ending the deadlock have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on an off-ramp this time as both parties – including the nation's leader – can see some merit in maintaining their positions.

Here are several key factors that make this shutdown distinct currently.

1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare

The Democratic base has been demanding for months for their representatives more forcefully fights the current presidency. Well now Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show their responsiveness.

Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill and averting a government closure early this year. This time he's holding firm.

This is a chance for Democrats to demonstrate they can take back some control from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.

Opposing the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers as citizens generally will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.

Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support and GOP-backed federal health program reductions for the poor, which are both unpopular.

Additionally, they're attempting to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, which he has done in international assistance and other programmes.

2. For Republicans, they see potential

The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.

The nation's leader personally stated recently that the government closure had afforded him a "unique chance", and that he would look to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".

Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary said this was just "fiscal sanity".

The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, which is headed by the key official.

The administration's financial chief has already announced the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.

Third, Trust Is Lacking between both parties

Whereas past government closures typically involved late-night talks between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, currently there seems little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.

Conversely, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.

House Speaker from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and maintaining positions during discussions "for electoral protection".

Simultaneously, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume cannot be trusted.

The President himself has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the legislator is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.

The representative and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.

Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability

Experts project approximately two-fifths of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough as a result of the government closure.

That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of government activity connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.

A shutdown also injects fresh instability into an economy already being roiled from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and technological advancements.

Analysts estimate potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.

However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity following resolution, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.

This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.

Conversely, experts indicate that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.

Sue Graham
Sue Graham

Digital strategist and entrepreneur with over a decade of experience in helping businesses innovate and scale through technology.